Virtual Asteroids Revolutionize Planetary Defense Strategies

Modern planetary defense requires continuous and reliable monitoring of near-Earth objects. The main problem is the growing uncertainty of asteroid orbits over time, especially in the absence of fresh observations. The French observatory has developed the NEOForCE system (Near-Earth Objects’ Forecast of Collisional Events), capable of independently assessing the probability of asteroid collisions with Earth, complementing existing platforms such as Sentry-II, CLOMON2, and Aegis.

The heart of NEOForCE is the concept of ‘virtual asteroids’ and the Partial Banana Mapping (PBM) method. This method involves a multitude of possible orbits compatible with current observations, while PBM allows computations to focus on an elongated and curved region of uncertainty along the orbit where errors grow the most. This approach makes analysis efficient even for rare events with a low probability of collision.

The system’s process is iterative and sequential. First, virtual asteroids are generated along the line of variations, then a filter is applied to exclude safe objects. The orbits are then integrated 100 years ahead, after which PBM identifies key points closest to Earth.

Recently, technological advancements in asteroid tracking have enhanced the detection capabilities of such systems. For example, radar systems and optical telescopes are now capable of pinpointing asteroid positions with unprecedented precision, broadening the scope of international collaborations in space tracking. Enhanced radar technology has led to greater accuracy in predicting asteroid paths, a critical aspect for the coordination within international agencies engaged in Earth’s defense.

Iterative search allows precise identification of objects with a high probability of collision, and the modified calculation plane accounts for Earth’s gravitational focusing, refining the collision probability. Testing of NEOForCE demonstrated the system’s superiority in complex scenarios. For the slowly approaching asteroid 2000 SG344, the system detected an order of magnitude more potential collisions than Sentry-II, including events with high probability, missed by other platforms.