Smartphone Market Braces for a Bumpy Ride but Sees AI-Boosted Hope

Due to rising memory prices, various analysts predict a decline in smartphone sales in 2026. Meanwhile, according to a fresh forecast by Counterpoint, smartphone SoC shipments won’t fall for all companies.

Unisoc is expected to suffer the most, showing a decline of 14.2%, while Apple will only drop by 4.4%. However, Samsung, Huawei, and Google will manage to show growth, with quite respectable figures: 7.3%, 4%, and 18.9%, respectively.

Analysts say these companies will achieve this by optimizing supply chains, and this includes Apple, although it will still see a decline. In this context, global smartphone shipments are expected to shrink by 6.1% year-on-year in 2026, and smartphone SoC shipments are projected to fall by 7% compared to 2025. Chinese manufacturers are likely to suffer the most, while Apple and Samsung are in a more advantageous position thanks to integrated supply chains and a continued premium transition. Unisoc faces the steepest decline due to its reliance on a contracting budget 4G device market. At the same time, Google is anticipated to demonstrate the strongest growth, aided by AI differentiation and expansion outside the US and Japan. The release of Samsung’s 2-nm Exynos 2600 processor further strengthens its vertical strategy, while MediaTek and Qualcomm face mixed results as premium platforms offset mass market weaknesses. Notably, all three companies showing growth produce single-chip systems exclusively for their own smartphones.