Nvidia’s Bold Bet in China: Prepaid Chips Amid Uncertain Imports

Nvidia has tightened sales conditions for its H200 AI accelerators for Chinese clients. Due to uncertainties surrounding import licenses, the company now requires full prepayment when placing an order. Furthermore, buyers are not allowed to cancel orders or receive refunds, even if the Chinese government eventually blocks the import of these accelerators.

Chinese tech giants have already ordered over 2 million H200 chips (each priced at approximately $27,000), while Nvidia currently has only 700,000 units available. It is expected that the Chinese government will allow the import of H200s in the first quarter of 2026, but only for the commercial sector. Military and government bodies will remain banned. Additionally, authorities require companies to purchase a certain quantity of domestic chips alongside each imported H200.

The first shipments of the H200 (from Nvidia’s existing stock) are expected before the Chinese New Year (i.e., before February 17). Remaining orders will not be fulfilled before the second quarter, as Nvidia must produce new chips.

China’s demand for Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips poses significant implications for the semiconductor industry. The stipulation that domestic chips be purchased in conjunction with Nvidia’s creates a compelling dynamic that could strengthen the local semiconductor sector. However, it might place operational and financial strains on companies heavily reliant on Nvidia’s technology. As the world closely watches China’s import policies, Nvidia’s strategy underscores the intricate balance between international business ambitions and regulatory environments.