The company Hynix, a leading memory chip manufacturer, has published a grim forecast: the memory market problem will not be resolved in the next couple of years. A significant increase in DRAM memory shipments, which could save the market from shortages, is only expected in 2028. The exceptions are HBM and SOCAMM chips.
The problem is that significant production volume increases require new factories or at least lines at existing facilities, and this all builds slowly. Hynix notes that memory stockpiles are declining. Analysts from TrendForce remind us that the worst is yet to come: the catastrophe’s peak will be reached around mid-2026. Despite the catastrophe, Hynix believes that PC sales in 2026 will remain roughly at the current year’s level. Yes, growth was previously forecasted, but at least the situation will not deteriorate to the point where the market shows a decline. Although the year 2026 has not even started yet.
Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflicts affecting semiconductor supply chains, further complicate the outlook for memory availability. Despite these challenges, technological advancements in 3D NAND and emerging initiatives in quantum computing could eventually lead to notable shifts in chip demand.
Meanwhile, competitors like Samsung and Micron are exploring expansions in cutting-edge fabrication technologies, potentially shifting market dynamics once these projects come to fruition. Such moves may alter projections considerably if new production capacities are realized sooner than anticipated.
