Hubble’s Final Act: A Celestial Drama Unfolding

The Hubble Space Telescope might tumble out of orbit and crash to Earth sooner than anticipated-potentially as early as 2029. This conclusion was drawn by authors of a NASA technical report (NTRS). The worst-case scenario could see debris falling on densely populated areas such as Hong Kong or Singapore, leading to casualties. Hubble has been in orbit for over 35 years, since 1990, and during this time, it has made more than 1.7 million observations, contributing enormously to space study. Despite its impending decline, Hubble’s images and data have offered insights into the cosmos, such as advancing our understanding of black holes and dark matter.

Research suggests that aging equipment in harsh space conditions and precession are inevitably causing the telescope’s gradual orbit descent due to atmospheric drag. Initially, it was planned that Hubble would be returned to Earth or deorbited by a Space Shuttle mission at the end of its service life. However, the Space Shuttle program was shut down earlier than Hubble’s resources were expended. Elon Musk proposed lifting the telescope to a higher orbit using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, but that plan has not been implemented.

Recent partnerships between NASA and SpaceX have not yet defined an exact mission or timeline for Hubble’s future.

The NTRS study emphasizes that Hubble was originally not designed for a controlled deorbit, posing additional risks. The report authors note that in a best-case scenario, the telescope could remain in orbit until 2040. However, according to the study, under nominal solar activity, the telescope would re-enter the atmosphere in 2033, with debris spreading over a 350 to 800 km path. The risk to human life is considered low yet fails to meet NASA standards. NASA-STD-8719.14C demands the population risk not exceed 1:10,000. The study showed that the average risk ranges from 1:330 in the region Hubble crosses, to 1:31,000 in the least populated South Pacific area. The “worst-case scenario” suggests debris hitting Macau, where two to four casualties could occur due to high population density. At least one casualty is expected if debris falls on Hong Kong or Singapore.

Researchers advocate for additional studies to determine risk-refining factors as the deorbit date approaches. It is also necessary to consider the impact of geomagnetic storms on the telescope’s orbit decay. In 2026, NASA might explore new collaborative opportunities or technological advancements to safely resolve the Hubble’s deorbit challenge.