Astronomers Track Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Potential Lunar Collision

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered at the end of 2024, has evolved from an uncertain threat to Earth to a potential risk for the Moon. Recent observations suggest a small chance of impact with the Moon on December 22, 2032. This discovery highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and data analysis to refine asteroid trajectories.

Refined Observations with the James Webb Telescope

In May, NASA utilized the James Webb Space Telescope to capture the final observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 before it drifted out of detectable range. The new data enhanced the accuracy of the asteroid’s orbital calculation by 20%, leading to a reassessment of its collision probability with the Moon.

Initial assessments placed the chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon at 3.8%. However, recent enhancements have revised this probability to 4.8%. Despite this increase, the likelihood remains low, yet it has opened the door for further analysis.

Opportunity for Scientific Advancement

An impact by 2024 YR4, measuring less than 70 meters across, poses no threat to Earth and would not alter the Moon’s orbit. However, such an event would provide a unique chance for seismological studies of the Moon’s interior. Should collision probabilities increase, NASA might deploy a station equipped with seismic sensors to capture data from the impact.

Researchers anticipate further opportunities to refine the asteroid’s trajectory during its next close approach to Earth in 2028. This endeavor underscores the ongoing efforts to better understand celestial threats and leverage them for scientific progress.